Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Charles Cabana, and Im a trader and investor based in New York. Ive been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to adopt proportionate regulations rather than broad restrictions or bans.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Whether its an election outcome or a major public event, the aggregated wisdom of these markets cuts through noise and bias in a way traditional sources just cant match. This isnt just helpful for my own trading decisions; its valuable information for the public, media, and even policymakers. I also use these markets to hedge personal and business financial risks. For example, betting on election outcomes or economic indicators helps me offset uncertainties that could impact my investments or taxes. This isnt gambling. Its a calculated strategy based on research and judgment, no different from trading stocks or commodities.
Im also concerned about maintaining freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets democratize access to information and financial tools. If the CFTC over-restricts them, or worse, bans certain categories outright, itll push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-registered exchange like Kalshi, where there are consumer protections and oversight, than be forced to take risks on foreign sites with no accountability. On top of that, the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, were just handing the future of these markets to other countries.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the CFTC should prioritize balancing innovation with consumer protection through targeted rules, not broad bans. And in Topic Area C on listed activities (Questions 15-22), I urge you to recognize that event contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, not gambling. Academic research backs this up, showing how these markets improve information transparency and decision-making.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address those issues. Punishing everyone by restricting entire markets isnt the answer. I respectfully ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, ensuring they remain accessible, safe, and innovative under CFTC oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Charles Cabana
