Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nathan Stuckey, and I'm just a regular citizen from Oklahoma writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time investor, just someone who believes these markets can be a valuable tool for everyday people like me, if they're regulated the right way.
I'm pretty new to prediction markets, but I support them because they offer something unique. They let people like me hedge against real financial risks that hit close to home. For instance, I run a small side business selling farm equipment parts, and election outcomes or policy changes can directly affect my taxes and costs. Being able to trade on a platform like Kalshi to offset some of that uncertainty would be a game-changer. It's not gambling, it's planning. These event contracts have a legitimate economic purpose, helping individuals and businesses manage risks, and I don't think they should be labeled as "gaming" when they work more like other investments.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are a lot safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we push these markets out of the US with overly tight rules, people will just go to those riskier places instead. That doesn't protect anyone. Plus, the US should be leading the way in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead while we sit on the sidelines.
I'm aware there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why that's a worry. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets, and I believe those can work here too. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill. And honestly, informed trading often makes the prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just the traders. This ties into questions 29 and 31 from your ANPR, about whether informed traders improve price discovery. I think they do, as long as the rules against insider abuse are enforced.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let's keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the US, where they can benefit regular folks like me while still being properly overseen.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Nathan Stuckey
