Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Manuel Munoz, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support keeping these prediction markets open under clear, fair regulation. I hope my perspective as an everyday user helps inform your decisions.
I believe prediction markets are valuable for people like me. They give insights you cant find anywhere else. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat out polls or TV pundits when it comes to predicting election outcomes or economic shifts. Thats not just useful for traders; its helpful for anyone trying to understand whats coming next. Beyond that, these markets let regular folks like me hedge against real risks. For example, Ive used Kalshi to offset potential impacts from policy changes or economic data releases that could affect my personal finances. Its not gambling. Its about making informed choices based on research, much like investing in stocks.
I also think the US should be a leader in this space. Financial innovation is something weve always been good at, and prediction markets are part of that. If we over-regulate or shut them down, we risk pushing this activity to unregulated offshore platforms that arent safe or transparent. Id much rather trade on a regulated market like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, than be forced to look elsewhere. Plus, keeping these markets open under clear guidelines means everyday people like me can participate. If only big institutions get access, the benefits and information stay locked away from the rest of us.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has, especially around manipulation or insider trading as mentioned in questions 29 through 32 of the ANPR. I get why thats a worry, but banning or overly restricting these markets isnt the answer. Laws already exist to stop insider trading and market manipulation, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Punishing all of us by limiting access because of a few bad actors feels unfair. Focus on enforcing the rules you already have rather than creating broad restrictions.
In response to questions 7 through 14 on public interest, Id argue that prediction markets serve a real public good by providing accurate information and hedging tools. The balance should lean toward innovation with sensible oversight, not heavy-handed limits. I urge you to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to operate and lets regular citizens participate in legal, transparent platforms.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope youll create rules that keep these markets accessible and safe for everyone.
Sincerely,
Manuel Munoz
