Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tyler Mccartin, and I'm a finance professional based in California. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand the value these markets bring, and I believe the CFTC has a real opportunity to foster innovation while protecting consumers.
I rely on prediction markets for unique insights that I cant get from polls or pundits. Whether its forecasting election outcomes or gauging the likelihood of key economic events, the data from these markets is often more accurate than traditional sources. This isnt just helpful for traders like me; it benefits everyone by providing transparent, crowd-sourced information about the future. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which gives me confidence that there are safeguards against manipulation and fraud. Banning or over-restricting these markets would likely push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, where theres no oversight at all. Thats a worse outcome for consumer protection.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness in financial innovation. If we stifle prediction markets here, other countries will step in and take the lead. We should be setting the global standard for how these markets operate, not ceding ground. Academic research backs this up, showing that prediction markets aggregate information efficiently and that informed trading actually improves price discovery. This isnt gambling; its a tool for understanding the world better, and it benefits all participants when the data is transparent.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by offering accurate forecasting and democratizing access to information. On Question 29, about inside information, I think informed traders enhance market accuracy, and existing laws already prohibit insider trading by federal officials or others with nonpublic data. The CFTC should focus on enforcing those rules rather than broad restrictions. Finally, on Question 33, about classification, I urge the Commission to ensure regulations dont impose undue costs on platforms, which could drive them offshore.
I appreciate the CFTCs effort to gather input on this issue. Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting and risk management, and I hope youll support their growth with balanced regulation that protects consumers without stifling innovation. Lets keep these markets safe, accessible, and based in the U.S.
Sincerely,
Tyler Mccartin
