Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Justin R, and I'm an everyday citizen from Minnesota writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated markets for event contracts. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input before drafting formal rules, and I hope my perspective as a regular user can help shape a balanced approach.
I believe prediction markets are valuable for people like me. They're not just a hobby; they give me access to unique information about events that affect my life, like election outcomes or economic indicators. The prices on these platforms often seem more accurate than what I hear from news pundits or polls. I also don't see this as gambling. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm researching, analyzing data, and making judgments about real-world events. It feels a lot like investing in stocks, not rolling dice at a casino. I think event contracts serve a real economic purpose, whether it's for price discovery or hedging risks that matter to me personally. Classifying them as "gaming" undercuts their legitimate value, and I urge the CFTC to recognize this distinction when addressing questions 15 through 22 in the ANPR about listed activities.
Another big concern for me is the idea of freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are safe and transparent. I've used unregulated offshore platforms like Polymarket too, and the difference is night and day. Offshore sites have no accountability; if something goes wrong, there's nowhere to turn. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets here in the U.S. won't stop people from trading. Itll just push us to those riskier, unregulated venues. I'd much rather see the CFTC focus on strong, fair rules that keep markets like Kalshi accessible. This ties directly to questions 7 through 14 in the ANPR about balancing innovation and consumer protection. Regulation should protect users, not exclude them.
Lastly, I want to touch on informed trading, which relates to questions 29 through 32 in the ANPR. I believe traders who bring knowledge to the market improve price accuracy, and that benefits everyone, not just those trading. Yes, insider trading is a concern, but there are already laws against it. The CFTC has tools to tackle bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Let's not punish the many for the actions of a few.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict event contracts. Focus on targeted rules that address specific risks while keeping these markets open to everyday people like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Justin R
