Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is William Wilkinson, and I'm just a regular citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've taken the time to learn about them, and I strongly support their place in a well-regulated financial system. I believe they offer real value to people like me, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive while addressing valid concerns.
I've always been frustrated by how hard it is to get reliable information on big events, whether it's an election or an economic policy change. Prediction markets stand out because they often produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it's useful for everyone trying to make sense of the world. I also see these markets as a way for regular folks like me to participate in something thats usually reserved for big institutions. Keeping these markets open to everyday people feels fairer, and I believe it makes the data they produce even better.
I want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling in my view. They serve real purposes, like helping people and businesses hedge against risks. For example, a small business owner might use a prediction market to protect against policy changes that could hit their bottom line. This is about research and judgment, not luck. Classifying these as gaming, as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, misses the economic value they provide. On top of that, academic research backs up the idea that prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, which ties into Questions 7-14 on public interest. That transparency benefits everyone, from citizens to policymakers.
Im also worried about what happens if we over-restrict or ban these markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, seem far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we push this activity offshore, as touched on in Questions 33-40 about classification and costs, we lose control and expose consumers to bigger risks. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that edge to other countries. And on concerns like insider trading or manipulation, raised in Questions 29-32, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle bad actors. Informed trading often improves price discovery anyway, which helps all of us. The answer isnt broad bans but targeted, proportionate rules.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with regulations that address specific risks without shutting down the benefits. Lets keep these markets accessible, safe, and innovative right here in the U.S. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
William Wilkinson
