Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Hugh Santosus, and I'm a student based in New York. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique insights and opportunities that arent available elsewhere. I believe they deserve to be regulated in a way that preserves access for everyday people like me while addressing legitimate concerns.
Prediction markets arent just a niche hobby for me; theyre a tool for understanding the world. As a student, Im constantly learning about economics, politics, and current events, and trading on these platforms forces me to research and think critically about whats likely to happen. The prices on markets like Kalshi often cut through the noise of pundits and polls, giving me a clearer picture of public sentiment or potential outcomes. This isnt gambling. Its a process of informed judgment, much like investing in stocks. And the information these markets produce doesnt just help traders; it benefits everyone by offering data points that are often more accurate than traditional forecasts.
What I value most is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Barring regular people from trading would mean the best information stays locked up with big institutions. I believe allowing informed trading by individuals improves price discovery for everyone. When people like me bring our knowledge and perspectives to the table, the market prices get sharper, and that helps all participants, from casual traders to businesses hedging risks. Im particularly drawn to the CFTCs questions on inside information (Questions 29-32). I think informed traders, as long as theyre not breaking laws, play a key role in making these markets more accurate. Insider trading is already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce those rules without banning entire categories of contracts or participants.
I understand there are risks, like potential manipulation or misuse of nonpublic information. But shutting down access to prediction markets isnt the answer. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few bad actors feels unfair and counterproductive. Instead, I urge the CFTC to focus on targeted rules that address specific harms while keeping these markets open to people like me who use them responsibly.
I also want to touch on the public interest aspect (Questions 7-14). Prediction markets foster innovation and civic engagement by giving ordinary citizens a stake in understanding major events. Regulating them sensibly, rather than restricting them, ensures the U.S. stays a leader in financial innovation. Please dont push this activity to unregulated offshore platforms by over-restricting here at home.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with rules that balance innovation and protection. Keep access open for informed individuals like me who contribute to better price discovery. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Hugh Santosus
