Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is William Hua, and I'm a trader and investor based in Nevada. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing real risks in a targeted way.
As a trader, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information you can't get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and public events consistently beat polls and pundits. That accuracy isn't just helpful for me when I trade; it's valuable for the public, media, and even policymakers who need reliable data to make decisions. These markets also let me hedge real risks. For example, Ive used them to offset potential losses tied to economic policy changes that could impact my investments. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" would be a mistake, as they serve legitimate economic purposes like price discovery and risk management.
Im also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, we push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight. Regulated markets like Kalshi, operating under CFTC rules, are far safer for participants like me. Banning or stifling them would mean ceding financial innovation to other countries. The U.S. should be leading the way, not falling behind. On a related note, I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone in the market. Addressing insider trading or manipulation doesn't require shutting down entire markets. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues, as seen in other derivatives markets. Use those tools, dont punish the rest of us.
Specifically, regarding Questions 7-14 on public interest, I urge the CFTC to prioritize innovation alongside consumer protection. For Questions 15-22 on listed activities, please avoid blanket bans on event contracts and focus on their economic utility. And for Questions 29-32 on inside information, consider how informed traders enhance market accuracy rather than assuming theyre a net negative.
I believe proportionate, targeted regulation is the right path. Address specific risks like manipulation with existing authority, not broad categorical restrictions. Please support a framework that allows prediction markets to thrive under fair oversight, keeping them accessible to individuals like me while maintaining market integrity.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
William Hua
