Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Bryson Ross, and I'm a journalist based in Illinois. Ive spent my career digging into stories, chasing facts, and trying to make sense of the messy world of public events and politics for my readers. Im writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) because I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. Theyve become a vital tool for me, both professionally and personally, and I believe they serve a broader public good.
As someone who reports on elections and major public events, Ive been frustrated for years by the limitations of traditional polls and punditry. Theyre often wrong, swayed by bias, or just too slow to capture real shifts in public sentiment. Thats why I started trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The prices on these markets cut through the noise. Theyve consistently been more accurate than polls in forecasting election outcomes and other big events. I use that data to inform my reporting, and it helps me give my audience a clearer picture of whats really happening. This isnt just useful for me; its valuable for anyone trying to understand the world, from policymakers to everyday citizens.
I also believe the U.S. has a chance to lead here. Prediction markets are a cutting-edge financial innovation, a way to harness collective wisdom through price signals. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, were handing the future to other countries who will gladly step in. Ive seen firsthand how offshore platforms operate with little oversight. Pushing activity there by clamping down here isnt safer; its the opposite. Regulating markets like Kalshi under the CFTCs watch keeps them transparent and accountable, and it keeps the U.S. at the forefront.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get it. Those are real risks. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets. Use those. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Its like shutting down a newspaper because one reporter fabricates a story. Specifically on Questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR about balancing innovation and public interest, I think the answer is clear: proportionate regulation that fosters innovation while enforcing existing laws against misconduct is the way to go. And on Question 15 about defining legitimate markets, Id argue these arent gambling. Theyre about research and real-world judgment, just like any investment.
I urge you to support a framework that allows prediction markets to thrive under fair, targeted rules. Dont let fear of misuse kill a tool thats already proving its worth to people like me and to society at large. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Bryson Ross
