Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shamill Romero-Willis, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I appreciate the chance to weigh in on how the CFTC can approach this growing area.
As someone who actively trades and invests, I've used prediction markets a few times to gain insights and manage risk. These markets offer something unique: prices that often reflect real-world outcomes better than polls or expert opinions. I've found them helpful for understanding probabilities around events that could impact my financial decisions, like policy changes or economic shifts. For instance, I've used them to hedge against potential risks tied to election outcomes that could affect tax policies or market regulations impacting my investments. This isn't gambling to me; it's about making informed choices with my money, just like I do with stocks or commodities.
I also believe that informed trading in these markets benefits everyone, not just those of us who participate. When people with knowledge trade, the prices become more accurate. That helps with price discovery, giving better signals to the public, businesses, and even policymakers. I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and those are valid. But the answer isn't to shut down or overly restrict prediction markets. Laws already exist to prevent federal employees or others from trading on nonpublic information, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation in any market. Banning or over-regulating these platforms would just push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which helps no one.
I'm particularly interested in the questions you raised in Topic Area B, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Topic Area E, like Question 29 on whether informed traders aid price discovery. My view is clear: innovation should be encouraged, and informed trading does improve market accuracy. The CFTC should focus on targeted rules to address specific risks rather than broad prohibitions that punish honest participants like me. Let's keep these markets accessible to regular people, not just big institutions, so the information benefits everyone.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. They provide real value for hedging risks and aggregating information, and with the right oversight, they can thrive without undue harm. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Shamill Romero-Willis
