Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shaun Gold, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I make part of my living creating content around prediction markets, covering breaking news, big games, and innovations like AI. It's incredible to see how the public perceives these events through the lens of market prices, and I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi. Im reaching out because I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and want to see the CFTC take a balanced approach.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they're a source of unique information that I can't get anywhere else. The prices reflect what people really think about everything from elections to tech breakthroughs, often more accurately than polls or pundits. This helps me make sense of the world, and I believe its valuable for everyone, not just traders. I also see these markets as a way for regular folks like me to participate in something thats usually reserved for big institutions. Keeping that access open is important for fairness and for getting the best information into the prices.
I want to address a few specific concerns tied to the CFTCs questions. On the idea of whether event contracts are gaming (Questions 15-22), I dont think they should be labeled that way. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment about real-world events, just like trading stocks or commodities. Its not a game of chance; it serves a real purpose, like price discovery and even hedging risks for everyday people. Classifying it as gambling feels like a misstep. On public interest and innovation (Questions 7-14), I believe the US should be leading the charge in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, were just ceding ground to other countries while pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms. Id much rather trade on a regulated site like Kalshi, where there are consumer protections, than take my chances with some sketchy overseas app.
Im not blind to the risks. Manipulation or insider trading could be issues, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle that. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets doesnt fix those problems; it just punishes people like me who use them responsibly. Lets keep these markets legal and regulated here in the US, where oversight can actually work.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while preserving access for everyday citizens and maintaining US leadership in this space. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Shaun Gold
