Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Stenzler, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a fair and balanced way.
I rely on prediction markets for insights I can't get anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or some other public event, the forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. That information helps me make better decisions, and I think it benefits everyone when we have access to clearer data. Beyond that, trading on these markets isn't gambling, no matter what some might say. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. I use these markets to hedge real risks, like potential changes in policy that could affect my personal finances. I'm not alone in this; businesses and other individuals do the same to protect against uncertainty.
I'm also convinced that regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the unregulated offshore platforms out there. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets, people won't just stop trading. They'll go to less safe, less transparent places, and that helps no one. The U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries. Plus, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. There's no need for broad bans when targeted rules can address specific problems. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, and that benefits all of us who participate.
I'd like to touch on a couple of your specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think proportionate regulation is the answer. Don't shut down entire markets over a few bad actors. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize that event contracts serve real economic purposes like hedging and forecasting, not just entertainment.
I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather input on this. My ask is simple: please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday people like me, with rules that target real risks without punishing everyone.
Sincerely,
Ryan Stenzler
