Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ryan Campbell, and I'm a trader and investor based in Wyoming. I make my living market making on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and want to share why they matter to me and to the broader public, while addressing some of the concerns raised in your questions.
Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information you cant get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and major public events consistently beat polls and pundits. As someone who trades daily, I rely on these markets for accurate signals to guide my strategies. This isnt just useful for me; its valuable for everyone, from policymakers to regular folks trying to understand whats coming next. I believe this ties directly to your questions on price discovery and public interest in Topic B (Questions 7-10). The democratized access to these markets is a strength. Letting everyday people participate, not just big institutions, makes the data richer and fairer.
I also use prediction markets to hedge real financial risks. Whether its an election outcome that could impact tax policies affecting my income or a Federal Reserve decision influencing my investments, these markets let me protect myself against uncertainty. This isnt gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. I urge the CFTC to recognize this in Topic C (Questions 15-18) and avoid classifying event contracts as gaming. They serve legitimate economic purposes, like hedging and price discovery.
Im not blind to the risks, though. Manipulation and insider trading are real concerns, as noted in Topic E (Questions 29-32). But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. Use those tools here instead of broad bans. Informed trading actually improves price accuracy, benefiting everyone. And banning or over-restricting these markets wont stop bad actors; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi. Id much rather trade under CFTC oversight than dodge sketchy overseas sites.
Finally, the US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Proportionate, targeted rules, as discussed in Topic A (Questions 1-6), can address specific risks without stifling a growing industry. Academic research backs this up, showing prediction markets improve information aggregation. Lets not throw that away.
I ask the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with fair, focused rules that protect consumers without shutting down opportunity. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ryan Campbell
