Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Vincent Ortega, and I'm a business owner from Missouri. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. Theyve been invaluable to me, and I believe they benefit society as a whole.
As a business owner, I rely on accurate information to make decisions, especially around elections and public events that impact my taxes and operations. Prediction markets consistently give forecasts that beat polls or pundits. Ive seen this firsthand, using market prices to gauge potential policy shifts that affect my business planning. This isnt just helpful for me; its better information for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers. Its about price discovery, not gambling. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Calling event contracts "gaming" doesnt make sense when they serve real economic purposes like hedging risks. For example, Ive used markets to hedge against outcomes that could hit my bottom line, like regulatory changes or economic data releases.
I also believe the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets is important. Were grown adults making our own decisions. The CFTC doesnt need to overprotect us with heavy-handed rules. Instead, focus on proportionate regulation. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, youll just push activity to less transparent venues, which hurts consumer protection. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that edge to other countries. Academic research backs this up too; studies show prediction markets improve data transparency and aggregate information efficiently.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7-14 under Public Interest, I think the balance should tilt toward innovation while using existing tools for consumer protection. The CFTC already has strong authority to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets; those can work here too. On Questions 15-22 about Listed Activities, event contracts shouldnt be lumped in with gaming. Theyre legitimate tools for hedging and forecasting. And on Questions 29-32 regarding Inside Information, I believe informed trading actually helps price discovery, benefiting all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
My ask is simple. Please support proportionate, targeted regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep the focus on real risks with the tools you already have, and let us continue using these markets to make informed decisions.
Sincerely,
Vincent Ortega
