Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dylan Ossler, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Ohio writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been following this issue because I believe markets like these should be open to regular people like me, not just the big players or politicians whove been insider trading for years with no real consequences. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I see real value in them, both for myself and for society.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they provide information you cant get anywhere else. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts are often more accurate than polls or TV pundits. When Im looking at an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices on these markets give me a clearer picture than any news segment. Thats not just helpful for traders like me, its useful for everyone who wants to understand whats likely to happen. Plus, letting everyday folks participate makes the data better. If only institutions or insiders can trade, the good information stays locked up with them. Thats not fair, and it doesnt help anyone.
I also dont think this is gambling. Trading on prediction markets takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Ive used these markets to hedge real risks, like potential policy changes that could hit my budget. For instance, betting on an election outcome that might affect taxes helps me plan better. This isnt a game, its a tool. And theres solid academic research backing this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. That transparency benefits us all.
On the concern of insider trading or manipulation, I get why people worry. But the CFTC already has strong tools to handle this. Insider trading is illegal, whether its a federal employee or anyone else. Same with market manipulation. Instead of banning or over-restricting these markets, I think the focus should be on enforcing the rules youve got. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for something most of us arent doing. Im especially interested in your questions 29 through 32 on inside information. I believe informed trading actually improves price discovery, making markets more accurate for everyone, as long as its not based on illegal nonpublic info.
Im also looking at questions 7 through 14 on public interest. Prediction markets balance innovation with real utility, like hedging and better forecasting. They shouldnt be treated as a threat but as a resource. My ask is simple: please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or restrict them so much that regular people like me cant participate. Keep them legal and regulated here in the U.S., where theres oversight, instead of pushing activity offshore.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Dylan Ossler
