Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Neftali Garcia, and I'm a trader and investor based in New Jersey. I've spent years analyzing markets and making decisions based on the best information I can find, and that's why I'm writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their role in our financial system and believe they need fair, proportionate regulation rather than heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who values solid data for decision-making, I see prediction markets as a unique tool for generating information thats hard to come by elsewhere. The prices in these markets often reflect a clearer picture of whats likely to happen than polls or expert opinions. Thats not just helpful for traders like me; its valuable for the public, policymakers, and businesses trying to plan for the future. Ive seen firsthand how bad information can lead to bad trades or investments, and I think prediction markets can help cut through the noise. They aggregate what people really think, based on where theyre willing to put their money.
One thing I want to stress is that event contracts in prediction markets shouldnt be lumped in with gaming or gambling. I spend hours researching before I make a trade, whether its stocks, commodities, or anything else. Prediction markets are no different. They require judgment, analysis, and a real understanding of the world. Classifying them as gaming would be like calling all investing a game of chance, which I know the CFTC doesnt believe. These contracts have legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and helping people hedge risks tied to real-world events. For example, a small business owner might use them to manage uncertainty around policy changes or economic shifts. Thats not a bet; its a strategy.
I also want to address some of the concerns raised in your ANPR, specifically around public interest and classification in Questions 7 and 33. I get that theres worry about manipulation or insider trading, but those risks exist in every market I trade in. The answer isnt to ban or over-restrict prediction markets; its to enforce the strong rules you already have. Shutting down these platforms would just push activity to unregulated, offshore sites where theres no oversight at all. Plus, letting regular folks like me participate makes the information in these markets better, not worse. If only big institutions can play, the data stays locked up with them.
I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with clear, targeted rules that address specific risks without stifling innovation. These markets are a powerful tool for better decision-making, and I want to see the U.S. lead the way on this, not fall behind. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Neftali Garcia
