Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eshaan Gumudavelli, and I'm a software engineer based in Florida. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to society and to individuals like me, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing real risks without over-restricting access.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, mostly focusing on election outcomes and other public events. As a tech professional, I value data and accuracy, and I've seen firsthand how these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on prediction market prices to get a clearer picture of what might happen, and they were consistently more on point than the talking heads on TV. This kind of forecasting isn't just helpful for traders; its useful for anyone trying to make sense of uncertain events, from journalists to policymakers. I think thats a public good worth protecting.
I also want to stress that participating in these markets isn't gambling, no matter how some might try to frame it. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm researching data, analyzing trends, and making informed decisions, just like I would with stocks or other investments. Event contracts have real economic purposes, like helping people hedge against uncertainty. Classifying them as "gaming" undercuts their value and ignores the skill and judgment involved. I hope the CFTC considers this when addressing questions 15 to 22 on listed activities.
Another big concern for me is the safety of regulated platforms versus unregulated ones. I prefer trading on a CFTC-registered platform like Kalshi because I trust theres oversight and accountability. If the CFTC bans or overly restricts these markets, people like me will just turn to offshore platforms with no protections. Thats not a solution; its a step backward. On questions 7 to 14 about public interest, I urge you to weigh the benefits of keeping activity in regulated U.S. markets against the risks of pushing it overseas.
Finally, I believe informed trading makes markets better for everyone. When knowledgeable traders participate, prices reflect reality more accurately, which helps all of us. Regarding questions 29 to 32 on inside information, I think the focus should be on enforcing existing laws against insider trading, not limiting who can participate. Banning markets to stop a few bad actors punishes the majority who play by the rules.
I'm asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while tackling specific risks with targeted rules. Please dont let over-restriction or outright bans stifle this innovative tool. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Eshaan Gumudavelli
