Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Corey Williams, and I'm an everyday citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). My profession is in the data science field, so I find a lot of interest in prediction markets. For that reason, Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable for individuals like me and for society as a whole. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to seek public input before crafting rules, and I want to urge you to support proportionate regulation rather than broad restrictions or bans.
I first got into prediction markets because I was frustrated with how often polls and pundits get things wrong, especially during election seasons. The forecasts on these markets have consistently been more accurate, giving me better information to understand what's really happening. This isn't just useful for me; it helps everyone, from regular folks to policymakers, make sense of complex events. Beyond forecasting, I've also used these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, trading on election outcomes or economic indicators helps me plan around potential policy changes that could impact my budget or savings. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like any other investment, and I believe event contracts serve real economic purposes, not just entertainment.
I'm also concerned about what happens if these markets are over-restricted or banned. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are transparent and safe. If access is cut off, people like me will turn to unregulated offshore platforms with no protections. That seems like a step backward. Plus, I've read academic studies showing how prediction markets improve price discovery by aggregating information from informed traders. That benefits everyone, not just those trading. Banning these markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the majority for the actions of a few.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I believe prediction markets serve the public by providing unique data and hedging tools, and regulation should balance innovation with consumer protection, not stifle it. On Question 15, about defining gaming, I strongly feel event contracts aren't gaming; they're economic tools for risk management and information. And on Question 29, about inside information, I think informed trading actually helps price discovery, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I hope the CFTC will focus on targeted rules to address specific risks like manipulation, using the strong tools you already have, rather than broad categorical bans. Prediction markets are a powerful resource for forecasting, hedging, and decision-making. Please regulate them in a way that keeps them accessible and safe for everyday people like me.
Sincerely,
Corey Williams
