Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Yory Arambula, and I'm an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on how the CFTC approaches this growing space.
I run a small side business here in Texas, and Ive got personal financial risks tied to things like interest rate changes and election outcomes that could impact taxes or regulations affecting my work. Prediction markets let me hedge some of that uncertainty. For instance, Ive placed trades on Kalshi to offset potential losses if a policy shift hits my bottom line. This isnt gambling to me. Its a practical tool, just like buying insurance or investing in stocks to protect against market swings. The prices on these platforms also give me insights I cant find in news headlines or polls, which helps me plan better.
What Im most concerned about is making sure these markets stay safe and accessible through proper regulation. Ive seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and I wouldnt touch them with a ten-foot pole. Theres no oversight, no accountability. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC rules as a designated contract market, are a completely different story. Theyve got transparency and protections in place. If you over-restrict or ban prediction markets here, people like me might get pushed to those shady offshore sites where theres no safety net. I think thats a bigger risk than any issues with insider trading or manipulation, which the CFTC already has tools to handle.
On that note, Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. Regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulated markets strike that balance by keeping trading fair while letting regular folks participate. And for Question 29 about insider trading risks, I dont think banning these markets is the answer. Enforce the laws already on the books for federal employees and others with nonpublic info, but dont punish the rest of us by shutting down a useful tool.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please dont impose blanket bans or overly tight restrictions that could drive activity to unsafe, unregulated spaces. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while keeping these markets open for everyday people like me who use them responsibly.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Yory Arambula
