Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mario Ponce. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide immense value to society, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support their growth rather than restrict or ban them.
As a trader, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Whether it's an election outcome or a major public event, the aggregated wisdom of these markets cuts through noise and bias in a way that traditional sources just can't match. This isn't just useful for me as a trader; its valuable information for the public, policymakers, and the media. I also rely on these markets to hedge personal financial risks tied to economic or political events, like changes in policy that could affect my investments. This isn't gambling, it's a legitimate economic tool, much like trading stocks or commodities based on research and judgment.
Im particularly drawn to the academic research behind prediction markets, which shows how they improve price discovery and data transparency. Informed trading, far from being a problem, actually makes prices more accurate and benefits everyone in the market. Regarding your questions 7 through 14 on public interest and price discovery, I strongly believe the CFTC should recognize these benefits and avoid over-restrictive rules that could stifle innovation. On questions 15 through 22 about listed activities, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming. They serve real purposes, from hedging to forecasting, and shouldn't be lumped in with pure chance-based activities.
I also want to address concerns about manipulation and insider trading, especially in relation to questions 29 through 32 on inside information. The CFTC already has powerful tools to tackle these issues in other derivatives markets. There's no need for broad bans or harsh restrictions; just enforce the existing rules. Banning entire categories of contracts, or overly limiting what can be traded, punishes honest participants like me. I also believe markets on geopolitics and other sensitive topics should be allowed under proper regulation. Pushing these offshore by restricting them here only makes things less safe and transparent.
Finally, I'm passionate about my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. These platforms give regular people like me a chance to engage with events that shape our world, and I don't want to see that taken away. Please develop proportionate regulations that address specific risks without banning or overly restricting prediction markets. Lets keep the U.S. a leader in financial innovation.
Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Mario Ponce
