Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is William Hanlon, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Indiana writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value, but I also have some concerns I want to raise.
I think prediction markets are a powerful tool for getting information that you can't find anywhere else. I've seen how their forecasts on elections and public events often beat out polls or pundits, and that's helpful for regular people like me who want to understand what's really going on. Plus, the academic research behind these markets shows they can aggregate information in a transparent way, which benefits everyone, not just traders. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. It's not fair to lock regular folks out and let only big institutions have access to this kind of information. Democratizing participation makes the system more accurate and gives people like me a chance to engage with important issues.
That said, I'm worried about certain types of contracts that seem ripe for abuse. Take reality TV shows like Survivor, for example. These shows are filmed months in advance, and it's just not right for people with inside information to bet on winners while the rest of us are in the dark. I don't think markets like that should be allowed on platforms like Kalshi. It feels more like cheating than forecasting. I'd urge you to look at Question 15 from your ANPR, about defining what counts as gaming versus legitimate markets, and make sure contracts on pre-recorded outcomes like TV shows are off the table.
I also want to stress that the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban prediction markets, we're just pushing this activity to other countries where theres less oversight. We should be setting the standard, not falling behind. On insider trading and manipulation, I get the concern, but those are already illegal. The CFTC has the tools to go after bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Banning them to stop a few cheaters punishes the wrong people.
In closing, I support well-regulated prediction markets that focus on real public events and forecasting, not on things like pre-recorded TV shows. Please craft rules that protect fairness while allowing innovation and participation. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
William Hanlon
