Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jose Hinojosa, and I'm a student from California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these platforms to thrive without over-restricting them.
As a student, I don't have a huge income, but Ive found prediction markets to be a useful tool for managing small financial risks. For example, Ive placed trades on economic events like inflation data releases to offset uncertainties with costs that hit me hard, like rent or groceries. Its not gambling to me; its a practical way to hedge against real-world outcomes that affect my budget. I believe this kind of hedging isnt just useful for someone like me but also for businesses or anyone facing uncertainties tied to political or economic events. These markets serve a real economic purpose, and I think calling them "gaming" misses the point of how they help people like me make informed decisions.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, we risk pushing activity to offshore platforms that arent safe or accountable. Id much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are rules and oversight, than be forced to look elsewhere. The US has the chance to set the standard here, and I hope we dont let other countries take the lead on something this promising.
On the topic of informed trading, I think its a good thing when people with knowledge contribute to these markets. It makes the prices more accurate, which helps everyone, not just traders. Ive learned so much just by following market trends and digging into why prices move. Regarding the CFTCs questions on inside information (like in Questions 29-32), I believe the answer isnt to shut down markets but to enforce existing laws against insider trading. We dont need broad bans; we need targeted enforcement.
One last thought. I think people should have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets without arbitrary limits on how much they can wager, whether its daily, weekly, or yearly. Its about personal choice in a system thats already overseen by the CFTC.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while addressing specific risks with focused rules. Please dont ban or overly restrict these valuable tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jose Hinojosa
