Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Trevor Walsh, and I'm a business owner and full-time crypto trader and investor from Washington state. I've been in the crypto space for nine years, running my own businesses while actively trading and investing. I've also used prediction markets a few times to inform my decisions, and Im writing to support proportionate regulation of these markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe theyre a valuable tool for me, my businesses, and society at large, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a way that allows innovation to thrive.
As someone who makes financial decisions daily, I can tell you that prediction markets provide information I can't get anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than polls or pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I checked platforms like Kalshi to gauge outcomes that could impact my business taxes and supply chain costs. The crowd-sourced data was sharper than anything on cable news. This kind of insight isn't just helpful to traders like me; it's valuable to anyone trying to understand where the world is headed, from journalists to policymakers.
Beyond forecasting, prediction markets let me and other business owners hedge real risks. A potential policy change or election result can hit my bottom line hard, whether it's a new tariff or a shift in local regulations here in Washington. Having a way to offset that uncertainty financially is a practical tool, not a game. It's no different from hedging currency risks in my crypto trades. I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, were just pushing activity to offshore platforms with no oversight, and we lose our edge to other countries eager to step up.
I appreciate the CFTCs concern about risks like manipulation or insider trading, as raised in questions 7 and 29 of the ANPR. I get it; bad actors are a problem in any market. But the answer isnt shutting down prediction markets. Laws already exist to stop insider trading and manipulation, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Punishing everyone by restricting access to these markets feels like overkill when targeted enforcement could address the real issues.
Im also drawn to question 14, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think regulation should focus on clear rules for transparency and fairness, not blanket prohibitions. Let regular folks like me participate alongside bigger players; it makes the markets predictions stronger and keeps the benefits from being hoarded by institutions.
In short, I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets that allow innovation while tackling specific risks with the tools you already have. Dont let fear of a few bad actors kill a tool that helps so many of us make better decisions. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Trevor Walsh
