Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nicholas Schuler, and I'm just a regular citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, mostly to get a sense of where things are headed with elections and other big public events. I'm not a big trader or anything, but Ive found these platforms really useful, and I wanted to weigh in to support well-regulated prediction markets.
I think prediction markets are valuable because they give insights you can't find anywhere else. Polls and pundits are often all over the place, but the prices on these markets cut through the noise and seem to predict outcomes better. For someone like me, who's just trying to understand what's likely to happen in an election or with a major policy shift, that kind of information is a big deal. It helps me feel more informed, and I think it benefits everyone when we have clearer signals about the future.
What worries me is the idea of banning or overly restricting these markets. I've seen how platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, and that regulation makes me feel a lot safer participating. If we clamp down too hard, people aren't going to stop trading on events, they'll just go to unregulated offshore sites where theres no protection at all. I've read about some of those foreign platforms, and theyre a mess, with no accountability. Pushing activity out of the US doesnt solve problems, it makes them worse. We should be keeping this in a regulated space where the CFTC can watch for manipulation or fraud.
On top of that, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut down prediction markets, were just handing the advantage to other countries that will let these platforms grow. Why should we fall behind? I think the CFTC can find a balance that lets innovation happen while still protecting folks like me from bad actors. Regarding your questions, like those in the Public Interest section (Questions 7-14), Id say innovation and consumer protection dont have to be at odds. Regulate smartly, but dont kill the whole idea.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those are already illegal, right? The CFTC has tools to go after people who cheat. Punishing everyone by restricting these markets doesnt seem fair when the focus should be on enforcing the rules we already have.
I hope youll support proportionate regulation for prediction markets. Keep them legal and under oversight, so regular people like me can use them safely without being pushed to sketchy offshore options. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Nicholas Schuler
