Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Albin Ramirez, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Utah writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not an expert or a big-time trader, but Ive recently started looking into prediction markets, and I strongly support having them regulated in a fair way that lets regular folks like me participate.
I believe prediction markets are valuable because they give information you can't find anywhere else. From what Ive read, their forecasts are often more accurate than polls or TV pundits. Thats helpful for everyone, not just traders. Whether its figuring out election outcomes or economic trends, these markets cut through the noise. As someone whos tired of biased news, I see this as a real public good. Plus, I dont think this is gambling at all. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Calling it "gaming" feels like a stretch to me, especially since event contracts can help people hedge real risks, like policy changes affecting my familys budget.
I also think its important that the U.S. stays a leader in financial innovation. If we over-restrict these markets, we risk pushing them to other countries where theres less oversight. Id much rather see platforms like Kalshi, which are regulated by the CFTC, thrive here at home. Regulated markets are safer than shady offshore sites. Banning or limiting them would just drive activity to places where there are no rules to protect anyone.
On the flip side, I get the worry about manipulation or insider trading. But isnt that already illegal? From what I understand, the CFTC has strong tools to go after bad actors in any market, including prediction markets. I dont think it makes sense to punish everyone by shutting down these platforms just because a few might cheat. Focus on enforcing the rules you already have. Im particularly interested in your questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection, and question 29 on whether informed traders help price discovery. I think they do, as long as the playing field stays fair through enforcement.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or make the rules so tight that only big institutions can play. Let regular people like me have access to these tools under clear, fair guidelines. Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Albin Ramirez
