Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Victor Balderrama, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New Mexico writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have value for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support fair and reasonable regulation of these markets instead of imposing heavy-handed restrictions or outright bans.
I live in a small town, and I'm not some big investor or Wall Street type. But I've found prediction markets to be a unique way to engage with events that affect my life, like elections or economic policies. A few years back, I placed small trades on a platform to gauge the likelihood of a federal policy change that could impact local jobs here. The market's predictions gave me insights I couldn't find in news articles or polls. It felt empowering to participate, even in a small way, and see how collective opinions turned into data. I think this kind of access for regular folks is important. Its not gambling, its about understanding the world better, and it takes thought and research, just like any other investment.
I get that there are concerns about things like insider trading or market manipulation. Those are real issues, no question. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to deal with bad actors in other markets, and I believe those can work here too. Banning entire categories of prediction markets or making them impossible for everyday people to use doesn't solve the problem, it just punishes everyone else. I'd rather see targeted rules that address specific risks without shutting down something useful. This ties into some of the questions in your notice, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection and Question 23 on how public interest determinations should be made. I think the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation that lets these markets grow while cracking down on actual misconduct.
Prediction markets give people like me a chance to have a stake in understanding big events, and they provide information that benefits everyone, not just traders. Please dont let overbroad restrictions take that away. I ask that the CFTC move forward with rules that support regulated, accessible prediction markets and avoid categorical bans that hurt ordinary citizens.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Victor Balderrama
