Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Adam Majoria, and I'm a veteran, businessman, and everyday citizen from Louisiana. I'm writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should regulate them proportionately, not ban or over-restrict them.
First off, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets give better information than polls or pundits. Whether it's an election or some other big public event, the prices on these markets often cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders; it's valuable for anyone making decisions, from regular folks to policymakers. I also appreciate the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. It's not gambling to me. It takes real research and judgment, just like trading stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging. For instance, I've used these markets to hedge personal financial risks tied to economic events, like inflation data affecting my costs of living. That kind of protection matters.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get over-restricted or banned. If that happens, people won't just stop trading; they'll go to unregulated offshore platforms instead. I've looked at some of those sites, and they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a CFTC-regulated market like Kalshi. Pushing activity offshore seems like it would make things worse, not better. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here, and I'd hate to see us cede that to other countries by being too heavy-handed.
I noticed a few specific questions in the ANPR that relate to my concerns. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think proportionate regulation is the way to go. Target specific risks like manipulation or insider trading with clear rules, but don't ban whole categories of contracts. On Question 29, about informed trading, I believe traders with good information actually help make prices more accurate, which benefits everyone. And regarding Question 15, on defining "gaming," I urge you not to lump event contracts into that category when they have legitimate uses like forecasting and hedging.
I've read academic studies showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, and I think that data transparency is a public good. Let's keep these markets accessible and safe through smart regulation, not restrictions that hurt regular people like me. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate rules for prediction markets and avoid broad bans that could drive activity to less safe venues.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Adam Majoria
