Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tonny Larenas, and Im just an everyday citizen from California. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe theyre valuable for me and for society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive without over-restricting access.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information. Honestly, Ive found their forecasts to be way more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. Whether its an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices on these markets cut through the noise and give a clearer picture. Thats not just helpful for traders like me; its useful for everyone, from journalists to policymakers. I also love that these platforms let regular people like me participate. If only big institutions could trade, all that valuable information would stay locked up with them. Opening it up feels fairer and makes the data better.
I know there are concerns about things like manipulation or insider trading. I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to handle those issues in other markets, and Im confident those can be applied here too. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else. Its like closing the stock market because of insider trading scandals. Instead, I think the focus should be on proportionate rules that target specific risks without shutting down the whole system.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gaming. Theyre not. Trading on these markets takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Plus, they serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and sometimes even hedging. Calling them gambling misses the point. And on a bigger scale, I believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, were just handing the advantage to other countries. I dont want to see that happen.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a few from Topic Area B on Public Interest, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think the CFTC can do both by focusing on targeted rules rather than broad bans. Also, for Topic Area C, Question 15 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize the economic value of event contracts and not lump them in with gambling.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep access open for people like me while addressing real risks with the tools you already have. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Tonny Larenas
