Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael Buckles, and I'm just a regular guy from Minnesota writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im not a financial expert or a big shot, but I do actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets are valuable for people like me. I want to support well-regulated prediction markets and ask that you avoid over-restricting or banning them.
Ive found prediction markets to be incredibly useful. They often give forecasts that are way more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of information isnt just helpful for traders, its good for everyone, from regular folks making decisions to policymakers needing clear data. On top of that, trading on Kalshi lets me hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive used these markets to offset uncertainty around economic events like inflation reports that hit my budget with rent and groceries. Its not gambling, its a practical tool, much like any other investment I might make.
I also think regulated platforms like Kalshi are a safer bet than unregulated offshore sites. If you clamp down too hard, people will just go to those less transparent places, and thats worse for everyone. Kalshi offers transparency and competition in a modern market, which I appreciate as a user. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to stop manipulation and insider trading. Use those instead of broad bans. Ive read about academic research showing how informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting all participants, not just a few insiders. Thats a plus, not a problem.
Im also worried about event contracts being labeled as gaming. Theyre not. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging and information gathering. Calling them gaming feels like calling all investing a game. And honestly, the US should be leading the way on financial innovation, not letting other countries take the lead. I hope youll focus on proportionate regulation that targets specific risks instead of shutting down whole categories of markets. Im particularly drawn to your questions 7 and 15 in the ANPR, about balancing innovation with protection and defining what counts as gaming. I think the answer is clear: support these markets with smart, focused rules.
Im just one voice, but I believe prediction markets give people like me a fair chance to participate in legal, regulated systems. They help with better decision-making and managing risks. Please dont over-restrict them. I urge you to support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible and innovative.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Michael Buckles
