Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Papin Nindjo, and Im a trader and investor based in Utah. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and Id like to explain why.
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing markets, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets cut through the noise. They consistently produce forecasts for elections and other public events that are more accurate than polls or pundits. Ive relied on these platforms to get a clearer picture of what might happen with major political outcomes, and that information helps me make better decisions, both in trading and in understanding the world around me. Its not just useful for traders like me. When these markets aggregate all kinds of opinions into a single price, that data helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, see whats really likely to happen. Its a public good, plain and simple.
I also think its worth pointing out that this isnt gambling. Trading on prediction markets takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Im not flipping a coin. Im reading, thinking, and weighing probabilities based on real-world events. And the fact that regular people like me can participate makes the forecasts even stronger. If you limit these markets to just big institutions, youre keeping the best information locked away from the rest of us. Thats not fair, and it doesnt help anyone.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets because of a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for something most of us arent doing. Itd be like closing the stock market over insider trading scandals. Instead, focus on enforcing the rules you already have.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are a clear case of innovation that benefits the public through better information. And on Question 11, regarding price discovery, I can say from experience that these markets give me insights I cant get anywhere else. Theyre a tool for understanding, not just betting.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep this valuable tool available while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Papin Nindjo
