Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jason Gordon, and I'm a software engineer based in Ohio. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, mainly out of curiosity and in an attempt to gain some personal benefit, but I have serious concerns about them. I want to be upfront: I don't think prediction markets are a positive force in society, and I believe they should be heavily restricted or even regulated out of existence.
As someone in the tech world, I understand the appeal of innovative platforms and data-driven tools. Ive participated in prediction markets hoping to hedge some personal financial risks, like potential policy changes that could impact my freelance projects or tech investments. But the more Ive engaged with these platforms, the more I see them as a form of gambling dressed up as something sophisticated. Its not about informed investing; its about betting on outcomes, often with little real insight. I worry this creates a culture where people, especially younger generations, think gambling is the only way to get ahead financially. Thats not the kind of society I want to see.
Beyond that, Im deeply troubled by the potential for corruption. Prediction markets seem like an easy avenue for insider trading and manipulation, especially by those in power. Our leaders, whether in government or business, could exploit nonpublic information or even influence events to profit off these contracts. I dont trust that current laws are enough to stop this. The CFTC already has tools to combat market manipulation, but Im skeptical they can keep up with the scale of abuse possible in prediction markets.
I appreciate that the CFTC is asking for input through this ANPR, and I want to address a couple of your specific questions. Regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the risks far outweigh any supposed benefits of innovation here. On Question 29 about inside information, I believe the presence of informed traders doesnt help price discovery; it just creates an unfair playing field ripe for exploitation. My view is simple. These markets are a blight, and broad categorical bans would be better than trying to patch up specific issues with targeted rules. Proportionate regulation sounds nice, but I dont think its enough to address the core problems.
Im submitting this comment after receiving an email from Kalshi encouraging users to respond, and while Im using their platform to send this, my opinion is my own. I urge the CFTC to consider the societal harm prediction markets cause and to regulate them out of existence. Protect regular people from this kind of speculative trap.
Sincerely,
Jason Gordon
