Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Melvin Jarquin, and I'm a regular citizen from the United States writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that prediction markets are a valuable tool that deserves thoughtful, proportionate regulation rather than heavy-handed restrictions.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for getting a clearer picture of what's likely to happen in elections and other public events. Honestly, I trust the forecasts from these markets far more than I trust polls or pundits on TV. The prices on platforms like Kalshi reflect real money and real stakes, so they cut through a lot of the noise and bias you see elsewhere. For example, during the last election cycle, I watched the odds on Kalshi shift in ways that made more sense than the contradictory polls I kept seeing. That kind of information isn't just helpful to me as a trader; it's something everyone could benefit from, whether they trade or not.
I also think it's important that these markets are open to regular people like me. If you limit access to just big institutions, all that valuable insight stays locked up with them. Letting everyday folks participate makes the forecasts stronger because more perspectives get baked into the price. And I don't see this as gambling at all. Trading on prediction markets takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. It's about understanding the world, not rolling dice.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the power to enforce them. Shutting down or overly restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. Instead, focus on enforcing the rules you already have.
In response to some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think prediction markets are a clear case of innovation that benefits the public through better forecasting. And for Question 11 on price discovery, I believe these markets provide unique data that can't be found elsewhere, especially for elections and public events.
I urge you to support well-regulated prediction markets without banning or over-restricting them. Theyre a powerful tool for understanding the world, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Melvin Jarquin
