Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Derek Grennell, and Im a public sector employee based in Florida. I work in policy and government, so I understand the importance of balancing innovation with protection for the public. Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets offer unique value to individuals like me, as well as to society at large.
As someone who works full-time in the public sector and juggles the high cost of living, I rely on prediction markets to help manage personal financial risks. For example, Ive used these markets to hedge against economic events like inflation data releases that directly impact my budget for groceries and rent. Its not just a game to me; its a practical tool. Beyond my own situation, I see how prediction markets produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. That kind of information isnt just helpful to traders, its valuable for public decision-making and price discovery. Ive seen firsthand how access to better data can inform policy discussions, and I think these markets play a real role in that.
I also want to stress that event contracts are not gambling. They serve legitimate economic purposes, like hedging real risks for individuals and businesses. I worry that classifying them as gaming risks misunderstanding their value. On top of that, regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, itll just push activity to less transparent venues where consumers have no protection. I believe the U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not cede that ground to other countries. The CFTC already has robust tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets; those can be adapted here without resorting to broad categorical bans.
Specifically addressing some of the questions in the ANPR, I think informed trading improves price discovery and benefits all participants, as raised in Questions 29-32 under Inside Information. And in response to Questions 7-14 on Public Interest, I urge the CFTC to prioritize proportionate regulation that fosters innovation while protecting consumers, rather than shutting down access. Academic research supports the value of these markets for aggregating information, and I think transparency in data from regulated platforms can further that benefit.
I get that there are concerns about manipulation or misuse, but the answer isnt to punish regular people by restricting access. Targeted rules can address specific risks. Prediction markets help everyday folks like me make ends meet, and they provide insights that benefit everyone. Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, not bans or overly tight restrictions. Lets keep this valuable tool accessible and safe under CFTC oversight.
Sincerely,
Derek Grennell
