Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Juan Munguia, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support having access to legal, regulated platforms for event contracts. I believe these markets are valuable, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a fair way without banning or over-restricting them.
Ive placed a few trades on platforms like Kalshi, mostly to get a sense of whats likely to happen with things like elections or economic reports that affect my life. The information I get from these markets feels different, more real than what I hear from news or polls. Its not gambling to me. Its about researching and making informed guesses on real-world events, just like people do with stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores the real economic purpose they serve, like price discovery and helping people like me understand risks better.
Beyond my own use, I think prediction markets let everyday folks and businesses hedge real risks. For example, a small business owner might use them to offset uncertainty around policy changes or economic shifts. Thats not a game; its practical. I also believe informed trading, as raised in Questions 29-32, actually helps everyone by making prices more accurate. Banning or limiting these markets because of concerns about insider trading or manipulation, which are already illegal, feels like punishing the wrong people. The CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors. Use those instead of shutting down something useful.
Im also worried that over-restricting prediction markets will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe. Regulated markets like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, give me confidence that there are rules and protections in place. Plus, the US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not letting other countries take over this space. If we clamp down too hard, were handing that advantage away. I hope youll consider these points when looking at Questions 7-14 on public interest and balancing innovation with protection.
Im not an expert, just a regular person who sees value in these markets. I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid broad bans or overly tight restrictions. Lets keep access open for people like me while addressing specific risks with targeted rules.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Juan Munguia
