Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Matthew Ross, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as a regular user can help inform your approach.
I don't understand the pushback against prediction markets. To me, theyre a game-changer. They give us information that's often more accurate than polls or pundits when it comes to elections and major public events. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms cut through the noise and provide a clearer picture of what might happen. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make better decisions. Plus, allowing regular folks like me to participate democratizes access to this information. If only big institutions could trade, they'd hoard all the insights.
Beyond forecasting, I use prediction markets to hedge real financial risks in my life. For example, I've placed trades on election outcomes that could impact my taxes or local regulations affecting my side hustle. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" feels wrong when they serve legitimate economic purposes like price discovery and risk management. I urge you to consider this in your response to Questions 15-22 on listed activities.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets get banned or over-restricted. I've seen unregulated offshore platforms out there, and they're nowhere near as safe as a CFTC-registered exchange like Kalshi. Pushing activity offshore by clamping down too hard would hurt people like me who want to trade legally and safely. On this point, I think your Questions 7-14 on public interest hit the nail on the head. We need a balance that protects consumers without stifling innovation. The US should be leading in financial tech, not handing that advantage to other countries.
As for concerns like manipulation or insider trading, I get it. Those are real risks. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other markets. Why not adapt those instead of broad bans? Informed trading actually helps make prices more accurate, benefiting everyone. Banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the wrong people. Id encourage you to look at Questions 29-32 on inside information and focus on targeted rules rather than sweeping restrictions.
In short, Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible for regular folks like me, and ensure the US stays ahead in financial innovation. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Matthew Ross
