Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Yamba Ilunga, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
One of the biggest reasons I value prediction markets is the information they provide. I've seen firsthand how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or TV pundits. Whether it's an election result or an economic indicator, the aggregated bets of many people seem to cut through the noise and get closer to the truth. This isn't just helpful for traders like me; it's useful for anyone trying to make sense of the world, from journalists to policymakers. I think about how often I've checked a market's odds before making a personal decision, like planning around potential policy changes that could affect my budget. That kind of insight is hard to find anywhere else.
I also believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't some shady gambling den. They're a place where regular folks like me can put our knowledge and research to use, much like trading stocks or commodities. Banning or overly restricting these markets would mean cutting off everyday people from a tool that levels the playing field. Why should only big institutions or insiders get access to this kind of information? I want the CFTC to keep these markets open to everyone under fair rules, not shut them out.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address a couple from the Public Interest section, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. I think regulated markets like Kalshi already strike a decent balance by having clear rules and oversight while letting innovation happen. And for Question 9 on price discovery, I can say from my own experience that these markets do provide real value in figuring out whats likely to happen. Theyre not perfect, but theyre often better than the alternatives.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and those are valid worries. But the answer isnt to ban prediction markets. Those behaviors are already illegal, and the CFTC has the power to enforce against bad actors. Punishing everyone by shutting down these markets would be unfair to law-abiding users like me. Instead, I urge you to focus on targeted, proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without throwing out the whole system.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I hope the CFTC will support well-regulated prediction markets and allow them to continue providing valuable information and opportunities to everyday Americans.
Sincerely,
Yamba Ilunga
