Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ace Hinton, and I'm a student from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I have a personal stake in how these markets are regulated, and I strongly support a framework that allows fair, legal participation while protecting consumers.
I got into prediction markets as a way to engage with real-world events and test my understanding of politics and economics. Trading on Kalshi isn't just a hobby; it's a learning tool. I've spent hours researching election trends, economic data, and policy impacts to make informed trades. This isn't gambling, it's a process of analysis and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22, ignores their real economic purpose. They help people like me hedge risks, like betting on inflation numbers that affect my student budget, and they provide unique data points you can't find in polls or news.
I'm also drawn to the academic value here. Prediction markets aggregate information in ways that often outpace traditional forecasts, and as a student, I rely on transparent data for research. The prices on these platforms reflect collective knowledge, and informed trading, as raised in Questions 29-32, actually improves price discovery. This benefits everyone, not just traders. Banning or over-restricting these markets would stifle access to this information and hurt academic study in the process.
I do understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address those issues. The bigger risk, in my view, is pushing activity offshore to unregulated platforms if restrictions go too far. I've seen friends turn to sketchy overseas sites when access is limited, and that's far less safe than trading on a regulated exchange like Kalshi. A balanced approach, as discussed in Questions 7-14 on public interest, would keep innovation alive in the US while ensuring oversight.
My ask is simple. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets that allows regular people like me to participate in legal, transparent platforms. Don't ban or overly restrict event contracts, and recognize their value for hedging, learning, and data transparency. I'm happy to engage further if there are follow-up questions.
Sincerely,
Ace Hinton
