Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Juliet Denning, and I'm a trader and investor based in Colorado. I've been involved in various markets for years, and Ive turned to prediction markets as a more thoughtful alternative to things like lotteries or sports betting. I've used these platforms a few times, and Im writing to support the proportionate regulation of prediction markets under the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe they provide unique value, and I want to share why I think the CFTC should encourage their growth with fair rules, not heavy-handed restrictions.
For me, prediction markets aren't just a pastime. They're a way to engage with real-world events like elections or public policy changes in a meaningful way. Unlike a lottery ticket, participating takes research and judgment. It's not gambling; it's a legitimate economic activity with a purpose. The prices on these platforms often give better insights than polls or pundits, and Ive found that information helpful for my own decisions as an investor. I think this kind of forecasting and price discovery benefits everyone, not just traders like me. Its a tool for better public decision-making, and we shouldnt throw that away by labeling these event contracts as "gaming." Theyre not. They serve a real economic function, as Im sure youve heard from others too.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, people like me wont just stop; well get pushed to less safe venues with no protections. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. The US has a chance to lead in financial innovation here, to set the standard globally. Why cede that to other countries by stifling these markets at home?
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other derivatives markets. Use those same powers here. Dont punish all of us by shutting down something valuable because of a few bad actors. And honestly, informed trading often makes prices more accurate. That helps everyone, not just the person trading. Im looking at questions 29 and 31 from your ANPR, about inside information and price discovery, and Id argue that the benefits of informed participation outweigh the risks, especially since laws already ban federal employees from misusing nonpublic info.
Im asking you to support prediction markets with balanced regulation. Craft rules that address specific risks without killing the innovation or pushing activity offshore. Keep platforms like this accessible to regular folks like me, and let the US stay a leader in this space. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Juliet Denning
