Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Robert Jones, and I'm just a regular citizen from New Jersey writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, not as a big trader, but because I find them incredibly helpful for getting a sense of the real probabilities behind events like elections or other public happenings. I'm writing to support well-regulated prediction markets and to ask that you avoid overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I value prediction markets because they often give me better information than polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how the probabilities on these platforms cut through the noise of talking heads on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, I checked a prediction market to get a clearer picture of the likely outcome, and it was way more accurate than most of the forecasts I saw elsewhere. This kind of information isn't just useful to me; it helps everyone make better decisions, whether you're a voter, a small business owner, or just someone trying to understand the world. I believe this ties directly to your questions 7 and 8 in the Public Interest section about the benefits of price discovery and innovation.
I'm also a firm believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, I worry that people like me will be pushed to less safe venues with no protections. That seems like the opposite of what regulation should do. On this point, I think your questions 29 through 32 on inside information miss the mark by focusing on risks without acknowledging that informed trading often improves price discovery for everyone. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Why not apply those same tools here instead of creating broad restrictions?
Finally, I think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will step in and take the lead. I'd rather see a system where everyday folks like me can participate in a regulated space and contribute to better information for all. This speaks to your questions 33 through 40 on classification and costs, where I urge you to consider the benefits of keeping these markets accessible to small players, not just big institutions.
I respectfully ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Focus on targeted rules for specific risks, and don't ban or overly restrict a tool that provides real value to people like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Robert Jones
