Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Green, and I'm a regular citizen from Pennsylvania writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe that well-regulated prediction markets offer real value to people like me and to society as a whole. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this issue.
I've found prediction markets to be incredibly useful for hedging personal financial risks. For instance, I run a small side business, and outcomes like election results or economic policy changes can directly impact my costs and planning. Trading on regulated platforms allows me to offset some of that uncertainty, much like how farmers hedge crop prices. This isn't gambling; it's a practical tool that takes research and judgment, similar to any other investment. Classifying event contracts as "gaming," as discussed in Questions 15-22 of the ANPR, ignores their legitimate economic purpose. They help with price discovery and risk management, and I urge the CFTC to recognize that.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. bans or over-restricts these markets, people won't just stop trading; they'll move to less secure venues with no consumer protections. On Questions 7-14 regarding public interest, I believe regulation should balance innovation with safety, not push activity underground. The U.S. has a chance to lead in financial innovation, and ceding that to other countries would be a mistake.
I'm aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, as raised in Questions 29-32. But the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors punishes everyone else, and I trust the CFTC can enforce existing laws without broad prohibitions. Plus, academic research, which I follow as a curious citizen, shows these markets often produce more accurate data than polls. That transparency benefits everyone, not just traders.
I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while preserving access for regular people like me. Keep the U.S. competitive, and ensure consumer protection through oversight, not prohibition. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
John Green
