Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is JJ Joseph, and I'm a citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm an educator by trade, and I've been actively trading on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now. I believe these markets are valuable and deserve thoughtful, balanced regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who teaches for a living, I'm always looking for ways to better understand the world around me, both for my own knowledge and to share with my students. Prediction markets have been a game-changer in that regard. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat out polls or pundit opinions by a wide margin. They're not just a betting game; they pull together real information from a lot of different people. That kind of aggregated insight isn't something you can get from a news article or a survey. Its a public good, plain and simple.
I also value my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like Kalshi. I feel much safer trading on a platform under CFTC oversight than I would on some offshore site with no rules or accountability. If we over-regulate or ban these markets here, people like me will get pushed to unregulated corners of the internet. Thats not protecting anyone; its just creating bigger risks. Plus, event contracts aren't gambling in my view. They serve a real purpose, like helping me hedge against uncertainties that affect my life, whether its an election outcome or an economic policy shift. Calling this "gaming" feels like a misstep when its so clearly tied to economic decision-making.
Im also worried about the U.S. falling behind. We should be leading the charge on financial innovation, not letting other countries take the reins. Prediction markets are a space where we can show the world how to do this right, with smart rules that protect people without killing off opportunity. Ive read some of the academic research on this too, like studies by economists showing how these markets improve data transparency and forecasting accuracy. Thats the kind of evidence we should be building on, not ignoring.
Looking at some of the questions in your ANPR, I want to address a couple directly. On Question 7 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets balance innovation and consumer protection when theyre regulated properly, as Kalshi is. And on Question 15 under Listed Activities, I strongly feel event contracts shouldnt be lumped in with gaming; theyre a legitimate tool for understanding and managing risk.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Let regular folks like me continue to participate in a safe, regulated space that benefits everyone through better information and innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
JJ Joseph
