Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tristan Pierre-Louis, and I'm a student from New Jersey. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've been learning about them through my studies, and I strongly support their existence under fair, well-thought-out regulation. I believe they offer unique value to society and to people like me who want to engage with the world in meaningful ways.
As a student, I spend a lot of time analyzing data and trends, whether it's for a class project or just to understand what's happening in politics and the economy. I've noticed how often polls and pundits get things wrong, especially around elections or big public events. Prediction markets, from what I've read, cut through that noise. They pull together what thousands of people know or think, and the prices often predict outcomes better than any survey. That kind of information isn't just useful for traders; it's valuable for everyone, including students like me who want to make sense of the world.
I also think these markets aren't gambling, no matter what some might say. They're about research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. People use them to hedge real risks, too. For example, a small business owner might use a market to protect against policy changes after an election, or someone like me could one day hedge against economic shifts that affect student loans or job prospects. This is practical, not a game. Addressing Questions 15 and 22 from your ANPR, I believe event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes and shouldn't be lumped in with gaming. The focus should be on defining clear boundaries, not broad bans.
On the topic of freedom to participate, raised in Questions 7 and 8 about public interest, I strongly feel that regular people like me should have access to these regulated markets. If only big institutions can trade, all that valuable information stays locked up with them. Letting everyday citizens take part makes the system fairer and the forecasts better. Of course, I get the worry about manipulation or insider trading, but those are already illegal. The CFTC has tools to tackle bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing everyone for something most of us wouldn't do.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing real risks with targeted rules. Please don't over-restrict or ban them. They offer a unique tool for forecasting and risk management that people like me can learn from and use.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Tristan Pierre-Louis
