Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jack Legge, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Maryland writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm new to prediction markets, but I've taken an interest in them lately, and I strongly support having them regulated properly here in the United States. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this.
For me, prediction markets are fun and competitive. It's a bit like a game, but one that makes you think hard about what's happening in the world. I have to read up on events, consider different angles, and make my best guess. It's not just a mindless bet; it feels like I'm engaging with real issues. Beyond that, though, I see a bigger picture. These markets give regular folks like me a way to access information and insights that I can't get from the news or polls. The prices reflect what a lot of people think, and that collective wisdom is valuable to everyone, not just traders.
What really concerns me is the idea of pushing these markets offshore by over-regulating or banning them here. I've looked into platforms like Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, and it seems so much safer to have a market operating under clear rules with oversight. If we make it too hard for prediction markets to exist in the US, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites with no protections. That can't be the better option. I also think the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something that could be a powerful tool for forecasting and managing risk. This ties into your questions 7 and 14 in the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe we can do both by regulating these markets sensibly, not shutting them down.
I'm not blind to the risks. I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but aren't those already illegal? The CFTC has tools to go after bad actors in other markets, so why not use those same tools here instead of broad restrictions? Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad apples feels like punishing everyone else who just wants to participate fairly.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them legal and operating under clear rules on registered platforms. Don't let overly strict policies drive this innovation offshore or out of reach for regular people like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jack Legge
