Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Yuvi Virk, and Im a trader and investor based in California. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and Ive seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, both to me personally and to society at large.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets to hedge financial risks that affect my investments and personal finances. For example, Ive used event contracts to protect against uncertainties tied to economic data releases or policy changes that could impact my portfolio. This isnt gambling, its a legitimate tool for managing risk, much like trading futures or options. The idea that these contracts are just gaming doesnt hold up when you consider the research and real-world judgment that go into trading them. They serve a clear economic purpose, and I believe the CFTC should recognize that.
Beyond my own use, Im convinced that prediction markets offer something special for everyone. The prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. Ive seen this myself comparing election forecasts on Kalshi to what I read in the news. That kind of information isnt just helpful for traders, its valuable for the public, journalists, and even policymakers who need reliable data to make decisions. If regular folks like me can participate, it makes the markets predictions even sharper by bringing in more perspectives. Locking this behind closed doors for big institutions only would be a mistake.
I also want to stress that regulated markets are the way to go. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, have rules and transparency that make them safe. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites with no protections. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. And honestly, the US should be leading the charge on financial innovation like this. We shouldnt let other countries take the reins while we drag our feet.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I think prediction markets clearly serve the public by improving price discovery and risk management. On Question 15, about defining gaming, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gambling when they have real economic utility. And on insider trading concerns from Question 29, I believe existing laws and CFTC enforcement powers are enough to tackle bad actors without shutting down entire markets.
I appreciate the CFTCs concern about risks like manipulation or insider trading, and those should be addressed. But banning or over-restricting prediction markets isnt the answer. I ask that you support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to thrive while protecting consumers.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Yuvi Virk
