Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is James Garrett, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Indiana writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope my perspective as a regular person using these tools can help shape your approach.
I rely on prediction markets for insights you can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events often beat out polls or pundits. Last year, I followed the market prices on a major national election, and they were spot on while the talking heads on TV were all over the place. This kind of accuracy isn't just helpful to me as a trader; it's valuable to anyone who wants a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. It's frustrating to think that access to this could be restricted.
I also believe that participating in these markets is my right as long as they're legal and regulated. Platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, which makes them a lot safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you clamp down too hard, people like me won't stop trading; we'll just get pushed to less secure places. That doesn't protect anyone. Keeping these markets regulated here in the US ensures transparency and accountability, and I think it's critical to maintain that.
Another point I feel strongly about is that event contracts aren't gambling. I put time into researching data and trends before making trades, just like I would with stocks or other investments. These markets let me hedge real risks, like how policies might affect my costs or job. Classifying this as "gaming" feels like a misstep when it serves legitimate economic purposes. I urge you to consider this in your responses to Questions 15-22 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
On a broader level, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. I've read about the academic research, like studies from economists showing how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries by over-regulating. This ties into Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. I get the need to protect people, but heavy-handed restrictions would hurt more than help.
I'm not blind to the risks of manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Use them instead of broad bans that punish regular folks like me. I respectfully ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, ensuring access for everyday citizens while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Let's keep the US at the forefront of this space.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
James Garrett
