Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Giovani Hernandez, and I'm just a regular citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair and reasonable regulation. I believe they offer real value to people like me, and I want to explain why I think the CFTC should regulate them thoughtfully instead of banning or over-restricting them.
As someone who tries to manage personal finances carefully, I see prediction markets as a useful tool for hedging risks that affect my day-to-day life. For example, with rising costs for rent and groceries, being able to hedge against economic events like inflation data releases or interest rate changes could help me plan better. It's not gambling, it's a way to protect myself from uncertainty. I think event contracts have a legitimate economic purpose, whether it's for individuals like me or for businesses trying to manage risks tied to policy changes or other events. Classifying these contracts as "gaming" feels wrong to me, because they involve research and real-world judgment, much like any other investment.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, seem far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If prediction markets are banned or overly restricted, people won't just stop trading, they'll go to those offshore platforms where there are no protections at all. That seems like a step backward. I'd rather see the CFTC focus on keeping these markets safe and transparent here in the US.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I think my views tie into questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I'm all for protecting consumers, but I think that can be done with clear rules, not outright bans. Also, under the Listed Activities section, question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets really matters to me. These markets aren't just games, they help people like me make informed financial choices.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but I believe the CFTC already has tools to address those issues without shutting down entire markets. Please don't punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Instead, I urge you to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while keeping them safe and fair for all participants.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Giovani Hernandez
