Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joseph Rodriguez, and I'm just a regular guy from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not an expert or a lawyer, just someone who has gotten into trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I want to explain why I believe prediction markets shouldnt be treated as gambling and should be regulated fairly, not banned.
Ill be honest, at first I thought prediction markets might be like gambling. But after trading on them for a while, Ive seen how different they are. This isnt just tossing dice or betting on a horse. I spend time researching news, economic reports, and public data to make informed decisions. For example, Ive traded contracts on election outcomes because they affect policies that could impact my taxes or my small side business selling handmade goods. Its a way to hedge against uncertainty, just like someone might invest in stocks or commodities to manage risk. To me, thats a real economic purpose, not a game. I think the CFTC should see event contracts the same way, as tools for price discovery and risk management, not as gambling.
I also know there are concerns about things like manipulation or insider trading in these markets. I get that. No one wants a market where a few bad actors can cheat everyone else. But I dont think the answer is shutting down prediction markets altogether. From what Ive read, the CFTC already has strong tools to go after manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Why not use those same powers here? Banning or over-restricting prediction markets feels like punishing all of us who trade honestly just because a few might break the rules. Im particularly interested in your questions 29 through 32 on inside information. I believe that with the right oversight, using the tools you already have, you can stop bad behavior without killing off a market thats useful to people like me.
Prediction markets also give regular folks a chance to participate in something thats bigger than just Wall Street. The information I get from trading, like seeing how prices shift before a big Fed decision, is stuff I cant find in the news. It helps me make better choices in my own life. I hope the CFTC will consider this value when looking at questions 7 through 14 on public interest.
In closing, Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or make rules so tight that regular people like me cant participate. Focus on using your existing authority to stop manipulation and insider trading, and let these markets keep providing real benefits to everyday citizens.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Joseph Rodriguez
