Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Edward Davies, and I'm an everyday citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique benefits to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to explain why I think the CFTC should craft rules that allow these markets to thrive.
I first got into prediction markets because I was frustrated with how often polls and pundits get things wrong, especially around elections and big public events. I've seen firsthand how these markets cut through the noise. Their prices often predict outcomes more accurately than any survey or talking head on TV. That kind of information isn't just useful for traders like me, it helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make better decisions. I remember last year, tracking election contracts on Kalshi gave me a clearer picture of what was likely to happen than anything I saw on the news. That clarity matters.
I also value the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, give me confidence that there are rules in place to protect users. I've dabbled in offshore platforms like Polymarket too, but honestly, I'd much rather trade in a regulated space where there's accountability. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will get pushed to unregulated sites overseas. That seems like the opposite of protecting consumers. Regulated markets are safer, period.
On top of that, I think the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. Prediction markets are a new way to aggregate information and manage risk. Why should we let other countries take the lead on this? We have the chance to set the standard with smart, fair rules. Im particularly drawn to questions 7 and 8 in your ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection. My view is simple: don't throw out the baby with the bathwater. Address specific risks like manipulation with targeted rules, but don't shut down the whole concept.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or market abuse, and I get that. But those issues are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has tools to enforce them. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill to me. It's like closing a highway because some people speed.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while tackling real risks with the authority you already have. Please dont ban or overly restrict these valuable tools. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Edward Davies
