Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mikalai Takush, and I'm a trader and investor from the United States. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for some time now, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets and want to share why I believe they are valuable for individuals like me and for society as a whole.
As a trader, I rely on prediction markets to gain insights that I simply can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how these markets produce forecasts that are often far more accurate than polls or pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I watched prediction market odds on platforms like Kalshi shift in real time based on new data, while traditional polls lagged behind or missed the mark entirely. This kind of aggregated wisdom isn't just helpful for traders; it's a public good that can inform everyone, from journalists to policymakers. I believe the CFTC should recognize this value when considering regulations, especially in response to questions 7 and 8 from the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection and the public interest.
I also want to emphasize how important it is to keep these markets open to regular people like me. Prediction markets aren't just for big institutions. Allowing everyday traders to participate makes the forecasts more accurate by bringing in diverse perspectives. If access is restricted, the information stays locked up with a small elite, and thats not fair or beneficial. Trading on these platforms isn't gambling, either. It requires research, analysis, and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. I hope the CFTC considers this when addressing questions 15 and 16 about defining legitimate markets versus gaming.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or market manipulation. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would punish honest participants like me. It's like closing the stock market because of insider trading scandals. Instead, I urge you to focus on targeted rules to address specific risks, as raised in questions 29 through 32 about inside information.
Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting and understanding the world. Theyve helped me make informed decisions as a trader, and they benefit society by providing clearer signals about future events. I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows legal, regulated markets to thrive while addressing legitimate concerns with focused enforcement. Please don't ban or overly restrict these valuable platforms.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mikalai Takush Mikalai Takush
