Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jacob Clay, and I'm writing to you as an everyday citizen from Illinois regarding the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and while I have serious concerns about their impact on working-class Americans like myself, I believe the answer isn't an outright ban but rather careful regulation. I appreciate the chance to share my thoughts.
Im deeply worried about the youth of our country turning to gambling, or things that feel like gambling, to get ahead in life instead of finding stable, good-paying union jobs with pensions. Prediction markets, like those on platforms such as Kalshi, often seem to prey on peoples desperation or curiosity, presenting themselves as a way to make quick money. In my view, they dont serve a real, beneficial purpose for most Americans. Worse, the data or "predictions" these markets produce can be skewed by a single wealthy individual or even government officials who might manipulate outcomes for personal gain. Ive seen how these platforms can create a false sense of reality that misleads people.
That said, Ive used prediction markets myself a few times to try hedging personal financial risks, like worrying about how an election might impact my taxes or costs. I can see a narrow use for them in that sense. But my bigger concern is safety. If these markets are going to exist, I strongly believe regulated platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. Banning them outright would just push activity underground to sketchy, foreign platforms where theres no accountability at all. At least with regulation, theres a chance to limit harm and keep an eye on manipulation.
Looking at some of the questions in your notice, specifically Question 7 under Public Interest, about balancing innovation with consumer protection, I think the focus should be on protection. These markets shouldnt be marketed as a game or an easy way to get rich. And on Question 29 about inside information, Im very concerned about federal officials or insiders using their knowledge to profit. That needs strict rules and enforcement, not just promises.
I urge you to regulate prediction markets tightly, with a focus on protecting regular people from exploitation and ensuring they arent distorted by wealthy or insider manipulation. Dont ban them if it means driving activity to unsafe offshore sites, but dont let them run wild either. Please put working-class Americans first in your decision.
Sincerely,
Jacob Clay
